Daily Forex Snap-Shots

Yen Appreciates Despite Noda’s Warnings

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:13:16 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.51
	GBP	-0.15
	CHF	-0.41
	EUR	-0.43

Since Wednesday’s exceedingly dovish Fed meeting, US bond yields have been under downward pressure and in turn we have seen USDJPY selling off sharply – reversing most of the gains made earlier in the week. This is not the direction that Japanese policymakers want to see the currency pair heading, as their discomfort with yen strength has been apparent for some time. Japanese Prime Minister Noda...

Fed Strikes Dovish Tone, Pledge To Keep Low Rates Until Late 2014

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 09:10:34 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.37
	GBP	0.29
	JPY	-0.18
	CHF	-0.38

Market chatter overnight has been dominated by last night’s FOMC meeting, where Fed members struck a noticeably dovish tone. Significantly, the committee pledged to keep rates on hold at their current ultra-low levels until late 2014 – and indeed some members voiced a preference to push that date back another year or two. In addition, Fed Chairman Bernanke clarified that the decision to keep...

FX Markets Await UK GDP Ahead Of Tonight’s FOMC Meeting

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 09:09:44 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.19
	CHF	0.09
	EUR	0.03
	GBP	-0.01

The Australian dollar has been one of the outperformers during the Asian session after the core CPI data for Q4 came out firmer than expected. AUDUSD has rallied to highs of 1.0541, and if this momentum continues we may be on track to re-test Friday’s highs. In anticipation of tonight’s FOMC meeting, USDJPY has rallied to 77.98 highs, its strongest level in almost a month. This suggests FX...

Eurozone Finance Ministers Reject Greek Bond Swap Proposal

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:56:04 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.05
	EUR	-0.01
	CHF	-0.06
	GBP	-0.15

Much of Asia remains closed for the lunar New Year, and as such, thin liquidity has led to low participation in overnight trading. The BoJ announced their latest monetary policy decision in the latter part of the session, opting to keep interest rates at 0.00-0.10% and to downgrade their growth forecasts for the coming year. The revisions are a reflection of the central bank’s growing concern...

No Greek Deal Before Meeting Of EU Finance Ministers

Elizabeth Gregory — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 09:01:54 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.19
	JPY	-0.01
	GBP	-0.23
	EUR	-0.26

EURUSD has started the week lower as the ongoing discussion between Greece and its private sector bond holders has not yet led to an agreement. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has sounded optimistic that negotiations are steadily coming together, and that at present there is a proposal on the table which has been agreed in principal, but is now simply being vetted by the EU/IMF....

EURUSD Rally Approaches 1.3000, Greek Talks Ongoing

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 09:02:40 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.38
	GBP	0.21
	JPY	0.04
	CHF	-0.33

EURUSD Rally Approaches 1.3000, Greek Talks Ongoing As we draw to a close the third week of 2012, EURUSD is consolidating just below 1.3000 levels, having rallied steadily from 1.2624 lows on Monday. The reason for the move higher in the euro can be attributed to a number of factors; the most obvious being the way French and Spanish debt auctions were favourably received this week, in spit e of...

New Zealand CPI Drops, Greece Talks Continue

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 08:58:39 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.05
	CHF	0.02
	JPY	-0.02
	GBP	-0.03

It’s been a busy Asian session today, with a number of economic releases out of New Zealand, Australia and Japan. In New Zealand, Q4 CPI came out much lower than expected at -0.3% QoQ, 1.8% YoY, compared to expectations of 0.4% QoQ, 2.6% YoY. This sent NZDUSD tumbling 50 pips lower immediately following the release, and the pair has continued to drift downwards as the session has progressed –...

BoJ Rules Out Exchange Rate Floor For Yen

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 09:15:06 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.51
	GBP	0.14
	JPY	-0.19
	CHF	-0.49

The main news overnight has been Japanese Finance Minister Azumi once again voicing his commitment to taking firm steps against speculative FX moves. Interestingly, he admitted that it would be difficult for the BoJ to follow the example of the SNB by defending a particular exchange rate for the yen, citing the vast size of the JPY market as a major hurdle to controlling supply. This is the first...

Strong China GDP Lifts Mood Despite EFSF Downgrade

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:03:37 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.61
	GBP	0.36
	JPY	-0.23
	CHF	-0.53

Risk appetite has been boosted during the Asian session, sending equity indices higher and providing EURUSD with a temporary respite from the chronic gloom which has dogged the pair for some time. The trigger for this turnaround in sentiment was the overnight release of China’s Q4 real GDP which beat expectations at 8.9% YoY (8.7% expected, 9.1% prior). One of the biggest beneficiaries of this...

France Loses AAA Rating In S&P Rout Of Eurozone

Peter Rosenstreich — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:28:17 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.16
	GBP	-0.01
	EUR	-0.21
	CHF	-0.31

Risk appetite soured quickly on Friday afternoon, with the euro falling sharply on rumours of imminent S&P downgrades. The ratings agency eventually confirmed that France and Austria had lost their AAA ratings, while Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus each had their credit rating demoted two notches, and a handful of peripheral members also suffered single notch downgrades. This swathe of...

Eurozone Sentiment Buoyed Ahead Of Italian Debt Auction

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 09:00:32 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.36
	EUR	0.27
	JPY	0.03
	CHF	-0.08

EURUSD has rallied well in the last 24 hours, prompted by the decent showing at Spain’s debt auction yesterday and the ECB press conference failing to fuel Eurozone pessimism. Central bank governor Mario Draghi acknowledged the challenges facing the economy going forward, but also pointed to “signs of stabilisation” which sounded a lot more optimistic than many had expected him to be in the...

EURUSD Weighed Ahead Of Today’s ECB Decision

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 09:01:23 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.17
	JPY	0.11
	GBP	-0.14
	EUR	-0.23

Asian equity markets have kicked off the day in a rather subdued fashion, with modest losses across most major indices. The Nikkei is down -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.3%, and Shanghai Composite -0.1%. EURUSD has remained under pressure in the last 24 hours, as risk sentiment has waned and the market awaits the ECB monetary policy meeting later in the day. While consensus estimates are looking for no...

Dovish Fed Speakers & Eurozone Concerns Weigh On Risk Sentiment

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 08:57:37 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.17
	JPY	0.11
	GBP	-0.14
	EUR	-0.23

Yesterday was a strong day for equity markets, with European bourses posting healthy gains and US indices also trading higher before the bout of Fed speakers started. Most of the rhetoric from US policymakers struck a dovish tone, with Cleveland Fed President Pianalto noting that inflation would dip below 2% in the first six months of this year, and that the US still “needed to get its fiscal...

China December Trade Surplus Boosts Risk Assets

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 08:58:55 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.38
	GBP	0.32
	JPY	-0.05
	CHF	-0.47

Asian equity indices have started the day strongly after Chinese trade data revealed a much higher than expected surplus for the month of December. Despite exports coming in precisely in line with expectations, imports came in significantly lower. We will have to wait until later in the month to see the breakdown of this figure, but if the drop turns out to be the result of lower demand for...

Dollar Makes Gains After Non-Farm Payrolls, Euro Falls To New Lows

Elizabeth Gregory — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 08:58:57 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.07
	EUR	0.06
	JPY	-0.08
	CHF	-0.11

The headline event on Friday was the release of December’s non-farm payrolls and US unemployment rate, both of which came out much better than expected. Headline payrolls jumped by 200k (compared to expectations of 155k), and contrary to expectations that unemployment would rise from 8.6% to 8.7%, the reading actually fell to 8.5%. All this paints an encouraging picture of recovery within the US...

EURUSD Hits New Lows Ahead Of Non-Farm Payrolls

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 08:42:32 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.08
	GBP	0.06
	EUR	-0.02
	JPY	-0.03

EURUSD hit fresh lows of 1.2764 in the Asian session, but volatility has been muted as markets await the upcoming non-farm payrolls release. Asian equity indices have struggled today with the Shanghai Composite the lone index managing to trade higher. Yesterday, under fire SNB Governor Philipp Hildebrand held a press conference in Zurich; with the aim of addressing media uproar that his wife...

EURUSD Heads Lower, US Jobs Report Coming Up

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 08:38:08 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.18
	JPY	0.07
	GBP	-0.23
	EUR	-0.24

EURUSD topped out at 1.3074 yesterday, and then collapsed back down to 1.2898 lows in the afternoon. Even though the pair managed to stabilize at depressed levels overnight, it seems inevitable that the selling pressure returns at some point. Yesterday’s Eurozone CPI estimate for December was in line with expectations at 2.8% (down from 3.0% in the month prior), but this moderation in inflation...

FOMC Pledges To Provide Projections On Interest Rates

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 08:39:47 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.22
	GBP	0.02
	JPY	-0.04
	EUR	-0.09

Asian equity markets have been mixed overnight, with a lack of news events ensuring limited participation. Japanese bourses are open again after the holidays and the Nikkei is up 1.2% today, but the Hang Seng is currently down -0.6% and Shanghai Composite -1.4%. Last night's FOMC minutes revealed that in future, the Fed will provide projections of how the committee expects the Fed Funds target...

China PMI Survey Buoys Risk Sentiment, Boosts Australian Dollar Higher

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 09:05:38 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.52
	GBP	0.50
	JPY	-0.20
	CHF	-0.28

With Asian markets returning to normality after the holidays (albeit with Japan still out), risk appetite has started strongly. Most risk currencies and Asian equity indices are trading higher this morning, buoyed in part by the strong Chinese non-manufacturing PMI released this morning. The survey increased to 56.0 in December, up from 49.7 in November – and follows an unexpectedly strong...

Short Positioning On Euro Hits New Highs

Elizabeth Gregory — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 09:02:25 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.04
	CHF	-0.04
	EUR	-0.13
	GBP	-0.24

Financial markets are beginning the week in rather a quiet fashion as most regional centres remain on holiday following the new year. The euro is still under pressure however, with the latest IMM positioning report revealing that short bets on the euro are at record highs, and EURJPY dipping to lows of 98.66 – its lowest level since December 2000. Plenty of pro-Eurozone rhetoric from European...

Disappointing Italian Debt Auction Sends Euro Lower

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 09:03:08 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.26
	EUR	0.02
	CHF	-0.12
	JPY	-0.20

EURUSD hit fresh lows of 1.2858 yesterday, after an Italian auction of long-term debt did not go nearly as well as the shorter term auctions the day before. The yield on 10-year bonds was just a whisker lower than the unsustainable 7% level (at 6.979%), and in spite of the Treasury aiming sell EUR8.5bn of its debt, only around EUR7bn could be placed. The silver lining to be gleaned from the event...