Daily Forex Snap-Shots

Final Day of the Decade

Peter Rosenstreich — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 11:30:49 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.56
	EUR	0.52
	GBP	0.29
	JPY	0.13

As the decade comes to a close, Asian trading session continues to be defined by thin liquidity. USD fell against all G10 currencies especially NZD. Spot Gold traded higher to $1100oz while EURUSD traded sharply up to 1.4440. Carry trades found strong buying interest, despite the Tokyo holiday, as the EURJPY moved up to 133.14 from the opening level around 132.52. Comments from Chinas officials...

Japan Airlines Fears Weigh On JPY

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 08:55:27 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	-0.05
	EUR	-0.08
	CHF	-0.15
	JPY	-0.17

Asian stock markets have been mixed overnight with the Shanghai Composite up over 1.5% on the day, but the Nikkei nearly a percent lower – weighed down primarily by speculation that Japan Airlines may have to file for bankruptcy. Shares in the troubled airline are down over 25% from yesterdays close to 67 yen (the lowest levels since the shares began trading) and sentiment is particularly weak...

Swedish Retail Sales Expected To Continue Surge Higher

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 08:50:20 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.31
	EUR	0.28
	GBP	0.16
	JPY	-0.10

Tight trading ranges prevailed in the majors overnight with EURUSD’s range 1.4354-1.4419, and USDJPY locked in an even narrower 91.61-91.78 channel. The USD has not shown much reaction to last night’s Fed proposal to set up a term deposit facility (designed to drain excess reserves); the accompanying statement was cautiously worded to underline that the plan had “no implications for monetary...

Asian Session: Markets Shrug Off Terrorist Attempt

Peter Rosenstreich — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 09:33:48 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	-0.04
	CHF	-0.09
	GBP	-0.12
	JPY	-0.21

Markets in general are very quiet after the holidays last week and today’s holiday in Australia and New Zealand. Asian regional equity indexes are higher, with Shanghai up 1.50% and the Nikkei up 1.32% on very light volume. Asia shrugged off the terrorist attempt on a Detroit-bound passenger plane, as risk correlated trades have held firm. The EURUSD has been range bound, trading between...

Asian Session: Thin Holiday Markets

Peter Rosenstreich — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 10:39:46 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.18
	JPY	0.10
	EUR	0.08
	CHF	-0.01

FX markets were quiet in Asia ahead of the holidays. Regional indexes traded broadly higher, with Shanghai up 2.59%. After yesterday's weaker than expected US data, it seems that the USD dependence on yields and domestic economic data has become stronger than the year long risk aversion trade. Most of Europe is closed today and tomorrow is Christmas, when most major markets, with the exception...

Respite in USD Buying

Peter Rosenstreich — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 18:16:33 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.70
	EUR	0.37
	JPY	0.16
	GBP	-0.32

The minutes of the BOE MPC meeting show a unanimous vote of 9-0 to keep both interest rates and QE asset purchases unchanged. Divergant dissenters Miles and Dale took the middle path and both opted for holding purchases at £200bn. The dovish overall tone gave the feeling that members were unwilling to permanently close the door on further expansion. Most pre-minutes analysis had predicted...

Asian Session: New Zealand GDP Disappoints

Peter Rosenstreich — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:16:11 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.01
	EUR	-0.13
	GBP	-0.16
	CHF	-0.16

Markets have shifted into holiday mode, as ranges have become compressed and thin liquidity is dominating price behavior. USD was basically unchanged in the Asian session, with Japan on holiday. Higher Treasury yield in recent weeks have created just another reason for traders to liquidate JPY positions. The USDJPY started the Asian session around 91.80, after the JPY fell the hardest in the...

US Session: US GDP Falls & USD Gains

Peter Rosenstreich — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:59:10 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	-0.24
	CHF	-0.43
	GBP	-0.68
	JPY	-0.89

The USD is largely unchanged on the day, DXY last trading at 78.21, after losing its early gains on the back of poor US economic data. The third reading of US Q3 GDP was much lower than expected at 2.2% annualized QoQ (down from the 2.8% second estimate), ensuring that EURUSD recovered back above 1.4300 levels (from 1.4266 lows), and USDJPY retraced back below the significant 91.50 resistance....

FOMC’s “Extended Period” May Not Be That Long After All

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:59:21 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.37
	GBP	0.31
	CHF	0.15
	JPY	0.02

The USD enjoyed a late rally in yesterday’s US session, after Chicago Fed President Evans revealed his interpretation of the “extended period” term used in recent FOMC minutes – and it was a markedly less dovish interpretation than the market had assumed. The phrase, which refers to the duration of the “exceptionally low” rate environment in the US, has become a central tenet of structural USD...

Canadian Dollar Outperforms

Elizabeth Gregory — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:11:32 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	-0.17
	EUR	-0.17
	GBP	-0.26
	JPY	-0.74

The USD has lacked strong direction in today’s trading, with the DXY flat on the day at the time of writing. Equity markets across Europe and the US are strongly higher on very little news other than the lack of any further sovereign debt headlines, and crude oil is back above $74. Underlining the divergent trends of the different asset classes, gold and EURUSD are both lower on the day despite...

Asian Session: Holiday Trading Starts

Peter Rosenstreich — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 10:39:45 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.19
	GBP	0.17
	JPY	0.14
	EUR	0.09

Thin, directionless trading is the best way to describe the Asian session. And with no first their economic data released today, we should expect more of the same. Asia’s regional indexes were unconvincingly mixed, while Europe is poised to open higher. However, we doubt this slightly positive sentiment will trickle through to the FX markets and expect any rally in risk to quickly dissolve. The...

JPY Weakens As Possibility Of Pakistan Coup Dismissed

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 17:01:28 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.09
	GBP	-0.43
	EUR	-0.45
	JPY	-0.99

Since the drama of the Asian session and the rumours of a Pakistan coup that sent FX markets rushing to buy JPY in a spasm of risk aversion, the European session has been altogether less thrilling. The Pakistan headlines were quickly dismissed by officials, and thus began the USD’s gradual recovery back toward flat on the day. Indeed the rally in USDJPY back from its 88.97 lows has since...

Asian Session: Pakistan Coup Denied but Scares Markets

Peter Rosenstreich — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 10:56:20 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.59
	JPY	0.35
	EUR	0.31
	GBP	0.16

FX markets were choppy in the Asian session, as the thin liquidity amplified small moves. Asian equities were slightly weaker, with Shanghai down -2.0% following yesterday’s drops across Europe and the US . Risk appetite was damaged as rumors of a Coup in Pakistan sent traders into scrambling USD. However, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari’s spokesman denied rumors of a coup, after the defense...

Markets Continue To Unwind Positions Into Year End

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:32:08 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	-0.46
	CHF	-0.86
	GBP	-1.21
	EUR	-1.28

The USD rally has continued throughout the European session; EURUSD’s slump through major technical support at 1.4480 in Asia has followed through today to lows of 1.4329; whilst gold and silver are down over 2% on the day at $1113 and $17.30 respectively. There has been very little headline news to add to yesterday’s FOMC statement; US claims data was slightly higher than forecasts but Leading...

Dollar Powers Higher On Fed’s Assessment Of Employment

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:44:00 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.04
	CHF	-0.68
	GBP	-0.71
	EUR	-0.82

The USD has extended gains today after yesterday’s FOMC meeting highlighted a more optimistic assessment of the US labour market. As expected, there was no change to the Fed Funds rate and the accompanying statement retained the crucial remarks that rates would stay at their “exceptionally low” levels for an ”extended period”; however the alteration to last month’s wording that was interpreted as...

US Session: Norges Bank Hike and Markets Await the Fed

Peter Rosenstreich — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:32:00 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.84
	CHF	0.59
	EUR	0.35
	JPY	0.24

The USD was range bound during both the Asian and European sessions in front of the critical FOMC decision later today. The EURUSD traded in the 1.4511-1.4572 range and the USDJPY traded between 89.39 and 89.88. European equities are trading higher on the day. As we had anticipated, Norges Bank raised rates 25bp to 1.75% . The reason for this was that economic data since the last meeting, which...

Asian Session: Waiting on the FOMC

Peter Rosenstreich — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 11:05:55 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.20
	GBP	0.14
	EUR	0.03
	CHF	0.01

The USD was able to hold gains in the Asian session. The EURUSD started the session at 1.4535, as growing concerns over European sovereign risk and Austrian banking sector, combined with the hawkish shift in FOMC expectations, after strong US data (including NFP, Retail Sales, PPI and Industrial Production). In Australia, the Q3 GDP fell well short of expectations and only managed to expand by...

RBA Minutes Weigh On AUD

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 08:56:54 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	-0.05
	EUR	-0.21
	CHF	-0.25
	JPY	-0.46

The USD is largely unchanged from yesterday – unsurprising given the lack of scheduled economic releases during the US session and absence of any market moving speakers or new headlines overnight. Equity markets across Asia are mixed; although the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are heading for a lower close. Most other benchmarks of risk are also stable with EURUSD still holding onto...

The Dollar Consolidates After Friday’s Gains

Elizabeth Gregory — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 18:15:38 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.44
	GBP	0.22
	CHF	0.18
	EUR	0.10

It has been a day of consolidation across FX markets after Friday’s stunning USD rally; with most pairs trading sideways during the European and early US session. Most currencies regained a small portion of Friday’s losses vs. the USD; leaving the DXY down around 0.25% on the day (EURUSD 1.4650, USDJPY 88.65). Liquidity has felt slightly thinner as we head deeper towards the holiday season, with...

Asian Session: Risk Appetite Improves Slightly as Dubai World Gets Bailout

Peter Rosenstreich — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 10:53:31 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.67
	EUR	0.23
	CHF	0.21
	GBP	0.07

Risk appetite firmed slightly in the Asian session, as the government of Abu Dhabi agreed to fund $10bn to Dubai World, with $4.1 used to repay property unit Nakheel. Markets rallied on the positive news, but sentiment still feels heavy, as worries abound over quasi-sovereign and sovereign debt. EURUSD traded between 1.4599 and 1.4685, while USDJPY slipped to 88.38 from 89.26. After a precipitous...

US Data Smashes Forecasts To Send The Dollar Higher

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:55:46 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	-0.25
	CHF	-0.88
	EUR	-0.88
	JPY	-1.10

After a slow morning of very static markets, this afternoon has seen a drastic shake down of USD short positions prompted by much better than expected US data. EURUSD collapsed from 1.4765 levels down through all major supports to 1.4586 lows, and gold from $1141 to $1009.57 after the November Retail Sales figures came out at 1.3% MoM against expectations for a 0.6% gain. Shortly afterwards,...

China Continues To Lead The Economic Recovery

Elizabeth Gregory — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:53:29 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.09
	EUR	-0.01
	CHF	-0.02
	JPY	-0.58

Most Asian indices are higher today on China’s better than forecast Industrial Production and CPI figures for November; but the uptick in market sentiment has had very little effect on the USD, with both EURUSD and gold locked in restrictive ranges. The only major currency noticeably affected by the news was JPY, which weakened to nearly 89.00 levels against the USD – giving back some of its...

No Surprises From SNB And BoE

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:34:25 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.00
	EUR	-0.05
	GBP	-0.07
	JPY	-0.50

FX markets have largely traded sideways since the European open; AUD and NZD have managed to increase their overnight gains (AUDUSD 0.9175, NZDUSD 0.7315), but otherwise most currencies have lacked much direction against the USD. Strong performances from European and US equity indices have come as a welcome antidote to the recent scares over sovereign debt crises, ensuring that the selling...

RBNZ Strike A Hawkish Tone

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 08:50:50 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	-0.03
	CHF	-0.08
	EUR	-0.09
	GBP	-0.14

The mixed performance of Asian equities overnight has left our risk benchmarks of EURUSD and gold at virtually the same levels we saw yesterday morning (1.4725 and $1130 respectively), however there has been a notable outperformance from the high-yielding NZD and AUD after the latest RBNZ rate decision and outstanding Australian jobs data. At the RBNZ meeting, the OCR was left unchanged at 2.50%...

S&P Revises Spain Outlook To Negative

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:35:59 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.68
	EUR	0.16
	CHF	0.08
	GBP	-0.43

Since the start of the European session, most currency pairs have traded sideways to slightly higher against the USD, with very little fundamental news able to fuel a continuation of the technical breakouts seen yesterday. Equities have been choppy and mixed, meaning EURUSD is trading at virtually the same levels that it closed yesterday (currently 1.4725), and gold has recovered above $1140...

Asian Session: Risky Assets Still Underpressue

Peter Rosenstreich — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:02:44 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.77
	CHF	0.01
	EUR	0.01
	GBP	-0.39

Risky assets came under renewed pressure in Asian session, as concerns over endless liquidity and sovereign downgrades weighed on investors. Asian regional indexes drifted lower, with the Shanghai composite down 1.73% at the time of writing. Gold broke the 1136.00 support, which had been previously the backstop for two major sell-off. JPY gained across the board, despite weaker than excepted...

Fitch Downgrades Greece

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 17:28:24 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	1.19
	CHF	-0.49
	EUR	-0.58
	GBP	-0.91

Risk appetite was dealt another blow today with the news that ratings agency Fitch downgraded Greece to a BBB+ rating and changed its outlook to negative. The erosion of risk sentiment (still fragile from lingering Dubai concerns and the aggressive unwind post-payrolls) dragged EURUSD back down through yesterday’s 1.4757 lows to touch 1.4727. Gold followed the move lower through its own intraday...

Bernanke Reaffirms Low Rates For An Extended Period

Elizabeth Gregory — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 08:51:44 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.55
	CHF	-0.06
	EUR	-0.09
	GBP	-0.61

The commotion that followed Friday’s much better than expected Non Farm Payrolls was somewhat sedated yesterday as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke kept his cautious outlook on the US economy, and reined in market expectations that had run wild with the idea of early Fed tightening. Despite US Unemployment ticking down from 10.2% to 10.0%, he still described the labour market as ‘weak’, and added that...

US Session: The Dollar Resurgence Threatens Risk Assets

Elizabeth Gregory — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:48:02 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.91
	GBP	-0.02
	EUR	-0.24
	CHF	-0.35

The impact of Friday’s Non Farm Payroll surprise was still reverberating through the markets well into today’s European session, as the USD surged higher against its currency counterparts and precious metals. EURUSD faced continued selling pressure in the morning, notably from models and leveraged accounts looking to exit their longs, and we slumped quickly through major support at 1.4800,...

Asian Session: NFP Supports USD , Sinks Risk Sentiment

Peter Rosenstreich — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 10:58:52 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	JPY	0.01
	EUR	-0.12
	CHF	-0.17
	GBP	-0.30

Risk correlated trades look shaky in the Asian session, as USD powered ahead against all other G10 currencies. It was clearly Friday's non-farm payrolls print, which prompted dollar gains, as markets extrapolated this figure into a world of a less ultra loose Fed and brought forward the expectations of rate hikes. In November, payrolls fell just 11k compared with a consensus forecast decline of...

US Session: US Employment Report Catches the Markets Off Guard

Peter Rosenstreich — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:23:56 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	-0.16
	EUR	-1.29
	CHF	-1.43
	JPY	-1.87

The markets were waiting all day for the US labor data and as usual, its volatile print didn’t disappoint. Unexpectedly, the non-farm payrolls declined by only 11k but was expect to shed another 125k jobs, while the unemployment rate dipped to 10.0% from 10.2%. These numbers are a clear sign that the US economic rebound is gathering momentum thus increasing the prospects that the theory of a...

European Session: Waiting on NFP

Peter Rosenstreich — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 11:11:47 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.32
	JPY	0.11
	EUR	-0.10
	CHF	-0.14

Risk appetite was muted in Asian session ahead of the US labor data. European equity markets are broadly lower, following Asia's lukewarm session. Overall, we expect a quiet morning with thin volumes and tight ranges. Oil and gold were 1% lower, while EURUSD consolidated between 1.5040-1.5140 and USDJPY traded between 88.00-88.50. Perhaps the only FX chart of interest would be the USDMXN, which...

ECB Take First Steps To Stimulus Exit

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:54:00 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	CHF	0.25
	EUR	0.23
	GBP	-0.33
	JPY	-0.87

It has been a very choppy day’s trading in the FX markets as equity indices across Europe and the US have had a mixed day, while investors failed to generate directional momentum from the day’s economic data or ECB meeting. The higher open from European equities was therefore the predominant driver behind EURUSD’s gradual march higher towards 1.5140 levels this morning, and in unison gold...

EURUSD Remains Elevated Ahead Of Significant Economic Releases And ECB

Elizabeth Gregory — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:57:40 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	0.50
	CHF	0.48
	GBP	0.45
	JPY	-0.47

The Nikkei has once again led Asian equity gains as Japanese exporters were boosted by a weaker JPY. An article in the WSJ claimed that Japan's Tamaki (Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs) met with a representative of the Obama administration on Monday, and although officials have declined to comment on the details of the discussion, the article suggested the meeting may indicate a...

Dollar Holds Firm Despite Equity Market Gains

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:05:17 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	GBP	0.16
	CHF	-0.19
	EUR	-0.19
	JPY	-0.58

There has been a divergence in the pattern of risk appetite and USD flows today; as equities have stayed in mildly positive territory, but the USD has made gains on the day with the DXY +0.20%. Gold has pared back from early $1217.25 highs to current $1209 levels, and EURUSD has receded to 1.5050 after failing to entice further bids up through 1.5100 levels. It feels much like the market is...

Gold Strikes New Highs Above $1215

Elizabeth Gregory — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 08:43:36 GMT

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
	EUR	-0.05
	CHF	-0.08
	GBP	-0.28
	JPY	-0.61

Asian equities have gained for a third straight day as worries over Dubai’s debt crisis have dissipated and the global recovery remains on track. The corresponding USD weakness has led EURUSD to retest 1.5100 levels, and most notably, pushed gold emphatically through the $1200 psychological barrier to touch highs of $1215.75. Yesterday’s European PMI data was broadly better than expected,...